Gay Math

Finding a great boyfriend or girlfriend isn’t easy, even with online dating here to help. Out of a city of 100,000 people, a straight man could reasonably expect that a population of 6-10,000 possible straight women exist within a respectable age range. For gay men and women? Not so much.

Consider this same mythical city of 100,000 people. Let’s divide this down by half so we have all the men (and women) grouped separately. Statistically 1 in 10 of our 50,000 men are gay, bringing our available pool to 5,000. Let’s assume about 10% are in your age range, based on census data for current young adults, so that drops us to 500 people. Lop off those that are already in relationships, are closeted, or are otherwise not interested at about 25% of that population and we’re left with 125 possiblities.

Out of 125, let’s whittle out the people who we can reasonably assume don’t match someone on a variety of match-making traits, like personality, class, racial, religious, and culture barriers, etc. and it’s not difficult to assume that┬ámaybe 25-50 of those people are even plausible partners. It’s more realistically somewhere around 20-30.

So out of an average city of 100,000 people, a gay 20-something year old man has to find one of just 25-ish people that he could reasonably assume are plausible dating endeavors.

I’ve thought about this for years, and it’s no wonder to me why so many gay people detest living outside of big cities, and why so many gay teens in rural places with only a few thousand people all together are so miserable. It’s a big world, right up until it’s really not. I’d attribute long-lasting gay and lesbian relationships to more blind luck than statistical plausibility.

And heaven forbid if you’re black and have a desire to date someone else who is also black, which isn’t terribly unreasonable. The black gay community has a much smaller population, obviously, and they have higher rates of closeted people because of cultural differences that eschew homosexuality as much as the confederacy (see: California’s 2008 gay marriage ballot measure). At that point the only thing worse than being gay is being black and gay.

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