Creating more than you consume

I’ve hammered on financial radio host Dave Ramsey before, but I’m impressed with his mastery of his show. I don’t listen to it, but I have in the past, and I know a lot of people who do listen to it. The gist is:

  1. Don’t ever go into debt.
  2. Pay off any debts you do have.
  3. Invest in mutual funds.

There’s more detail to it, like the percentage of money you should invest and so forth. But the simplicity of his message distills to “Don’t spend money you don’t have and earn more money”. It makes for entertaining radio.

I was thinking about his format this weekend because the “earn more” bit is grating. A person with $150,000 in debt and a $35,000 a year income will call in and he’ll tell them they have an income problem. They do, but the way to get into a better job never comes up much. That’s for the caller to just figure out.

It’s always about finding a better job though. Ramsey rarely encourages people to go into business themselves. That could be self-selecting because callers looking to go into business often have a bunch of other financial or personal problems.

Here’s the funny thing about all this, though: his advice to grow wealth is tied to the stock market. “Invest in good growth-stock mutual funds” …and wait 60 years. I get that for a lot of people that’s the safe, tried-and-true way. But did Dave Ramsey make his millions investing entirely in the stock market?

No, he did not.

Dave Ramsey made a business out of selling other people advice he wouldn’t settle for. If he called his own show 20 or 30 years ago he would have told himself to “Find a better job, chip away at debt, and invest.”

That’s not bad advice. But what did Ramsey actually do?

  • He wrote a book that simplifies a complex problem on an issue that impacts millions of people.
  • Started a series of talks and classes in churches (soft targets for people to speak about anything to a captive audience) to push that book and his name.
  • Published that book and worked into the syndicated radio show business to finally expand his reach to millions of people.

That’s all very impressive. I’m genuinely impressed at his ability to grow that and keep reinventing the wheel to expand into all kinds of different markets. He’s in the business of lecturing at middle and high schools, writing children’s books and faith-based books, plus podcasts, web series, and designing financial planning services that compete against Mint.

You have to do something else

If I hosted a competing radio show, I’d be telling callers another hard truth on how to achieve wealth: you must create more than you consume.

What you create must be able to scale up and reach millions of people (this is the fundamental flaw with my business).

My three steps would be:

  1. Turn off the TV and video games and spend that time building, writing, drawing, cooking, or creating something.
  2. Ensure what you’re creating can be reproduced or consumed by 10 people or 10,000 people.
  3. What you do consume should be related to your craft (like books on the subject).

This is somewhat antithetical to the notion of getting a job. People who grind at a job all day don’t have much mojo left at the end of the day to work on a book or a wood lathe. It can be done, but realistically most people just don’t have that ability. There’s also something to be said for “all work and no play” making people into dullards or worse.

Ramsey’s advice is an indication of another uncomfortable truth: the path to wealth in American is less and less through a job unless you’re in a highly credentialed field (law, medicine, etc.). It’s more through creation of your own business where you own the means of production.

In a capitalist society the whole thing would fall apart if everyone was a company owner. Eventually you require laborers. Creating a business is always a huge risk for people, too.

Just as Ramsey’s advice is to never go into debt and “make more money”, mine would go above that: “consume less and create more world-class stuff.”

This is what Indianapolis and Indiana will look like in the year 2036

Indy’s Plan 2020 is getting a lot of attention. I tried looking at their site, but almost every link I encountered said nothing or was broken. From what I hear, it’s a lot of zoning and land re-use plans that everyone is holding up as “the key to the city’s future”. I rarely believe that sort of stuff because Indianapolis, like most cities, doesn’t have any money to turn effort into momentum.

Doug Masson is doing an excellent job of summarizing Indiana’s history in his Indiana Bicentennial series.

Given Plan 2020 seems rather lofty and best-case-scenario for the future, and Doug has the State’s overall past covered, I thought it might be interesting to think about what Indianapolis and Indiana might look like in 20 years. That seems like a reasonable amount of time for gears of government to work enough to induce some noticeable policy changes at the state and local levels.

In 20 years this puts Indianapolis in the year 2036. Most millennials will now be somewhere in their 40’s. A new generation will have graduated out of K-12 education.

Indianapolis Neighborhoods

Broad Ripple will experience an overall suburbanization effect. As present-day millennials age and decide they want to hang near work and decent schools with their new families, Broad Ripple is going to look more like an old-school suburb.

Which means all the nightlife, music, and other noisy stuff will continue its trend and firmly supplant itself in Fountain Square. The current colony of artists and other industries that rely on extremely low-rents and low-cost spaces will now be setup around Garfield Park. The Cultural Trail will have extended south to Garfield Park, and East through the New York St/Michigan Street areas. However, we’ll be buzzled as to why all the growth will take place near Garfield Park and not so much on the near east side.

The 16th street corridor will continue its growth just north of Downtown and is likely to grow into something we’ve not seen much before in Indy. I think it’ll become a sort of “uppercrust young people with money” corridor. College students that have wealthy parents, Downtown workers with well-paying jobs, but with a taste that eschews the sort of shiny all-glass all-chrome aesthetic that defines Fountain Square’s new developments today. A new aesthetic of urban, gritty, classical-architecture is likely to take shape here.

The City’s continued investments in new roads, sidewalks, transit corridors, and trails will continue to expand primarily on the north side, north of Washington Street, east of Michigan Road, and west of College Ave. Nothing new here.

Lafayette Square and Washington Square malls will drag down everything around them like a collapsing star. They’ll kill spontaneity, aesthetics, and drag down safety and drive up costs in transportation. Best case is the city will work with Simon to demolish the properties and replace them with a dense node of mixed-use residential and commercial that is affordable and pushes the boundaries of quality, low-cost, office and retail space for entrepreneurs and super small businesses. “Mall to Small” we’ll call it.

Development on the south side will likely cease in this period. The south side will be waiting another 20 years (40 total from today) for suburban counties to struggle with their over-development and sprawl. Their costs will skyrocket, their residents will leave for newer exurbs, and taxes will increase. This will put Fishers, Avon, Plainfield, and Greenwood on a similar tax rate with Marion County. Thus, new development will in-fill on the south side of Marion County to at least get benefits of proximity since costs are equalized.

Shelby and Hancock Counties will benefit from that south side growth in 50-60 years from today as they become the new affordable suburbs.

Families and adults looking to flee from the City will setup shop in Westfield, Whitestown, Lebanon, New Whiteland, and Franklin. These places will resemble Fishers and Carmel today. Danville may also enjoy some exurban growth. Brownsburg will miss this boat because of a lack of vision and planning today. This will be their “lost generation”. Greenfield and Shelbyville will grow once that aforementioned south-side infill occurs.

Greenwood, Avon, Plainfield, Fishers, and Carmel will look like present-day Beech Grove and Lawrence, in that order. Carmel seems to be attempting to avoid this fate by investing heavily now, but heavy debt loads on a fickle population of residents may be their undoing. Greenwood, Avon, and Plainfield are likely unable to avoid this fate and will become old, expensive, and unsustainable once their water, sewer, road, and school systems start requiring immense repairs – all at around the same time. As property ages and becomes less valuable, they will see revenue shrink even more.

It could be that Carmel grows into an urban center unto itself, and between Indianapolis’ core and Carmel’s core the northside of Marion County becomes something else entirely. I think Carmel’s gambles today are likely to be dangerous long-term with debt. Debt is everyone’s undoing.

Indianapolis will maintain healthy bond and debt levels throughout this time, barring an emergency, and resemble our current “slow and steady” conservative approach to growth. But I can imagine a scenario where Indy’s “sports strategy” starts to show some cracks. The Colts are likely to be in negotiations for another new stadium. The Pacers will maintain shop here. The Speedway is going to see a decline in viewership, advertising, and attendance. Baseball, hockey, and soccer will continue to be such minor-players residents will loudly lament the expense of maintaining such expensive hobbies for the City. Particularly as investments in actual quality-of-life issues on the northside incenses people on the east, west, and south sides that don’t see those same amenities, but do see millions pouring into new stadium discussions.

Beech Grove and Lawrence will collapse and be folded into Indianapolis-Marion County government. They will be mere neighborhood names like Nora and Mars Hill conjure up today. Speedway may hang on, but only so long as Allison Transmission is around.

IUPUI will continue to expand east into Downtown for residential and healthcare work. Expect them to push west big time once they have a large enough plan to quickly take over the black neighborhood that’s there now. They’ll eschew growing “up” because of costs in taller buildings, preferring to keep things nice and cheap just over the river.

Indianapolis’ economy

Indianapolis’s economy will continue to be Indiana’s economy, and even more so, despite what state lawmakers will want to recognize, like today. I do not, however, think technology will be Indy’s future savior. I think our economy is likely to look a lot like today.

Salesforce will continue to expand in Indianapolis until the tech bubble bursts and their lack of profits for the sake of growth will cause total collapse of their workforce. Or, Salesforce will continue to expand in Indianapolis until a larger, actually profitable, company (like Microsoft or IBM) comes along and buys them out. That buyer is likely to have no allegiance to Indiana and we’ll enter a period of attrition as they move positions elsewhere. This will cause an undoing of Indy’s tech sector. Many will leave the city for the coasts in job relocations, but many will stay and reenter the workforce as solo entrepreneurs and freelancers. This is going to have a heavy impact on Indy’s income and sales tax revenues, but is likely to even out 10-15 years from then as the market sorts itself out. It’s hard to say which of these two things happens first. They’re racing neck-and-neck with each. What’s clear is that a select few on Wall Street and in San Francisco will be huge beneficiaries while everyday workers and the City wonders what happened and why.

Indianapolis will likely maintain most of its employment stability in government, retail, and biomedical industries (Lilly and Cummins will still do extremely well). Expect healthcare to take a dive as Boomers die and the echo-boomers age into middle-age with relatively modest healthcare needs. In another 50 years healthcare will likely tick up again as Millennials age further.

Indianapolis will continue to be a convention town, as another Convention Center expansion will have happened. Indianapolis will now regularly host large conventions for political parties, the NRA, and the sort of events we view as “just slightly” out of our league today from a capacity and hospitality stance. New hotels will continue to flow into Downtown.

Statewide policy

Indiana’s Legislature will have finally moved on from social issues like gay marriage, but will still be fixated on abortion and immigration. Indiana will likely continue to slide in the direction of less regulation and low taxation, but will compensate by raising more fees and use-taxes. Expect an increase in the gas tax by a bunch, likely within the next 2-5 years from today, and tied to inflation as Speaker Bosma has proposed. Just as electric cars take over more. I’d expect the gas tax to go up in 2-5 years and then a special “electric surcharge tax” will be placed on electric car charging to make up the difference going forward.

Indiana’s Legislature will continue to exert heavy control on Indiana’s municipalities, much to their chagrin. There will also be a push towards improving quality of life, noting that it’s not enough to be good for business if no one wants to live in your state. But this will focus heavily on communities with money. Expect Indianapolis, Fort Wayne, and Evansville to do well here, plus Hendricks, Hamilton, and Boone Counties. Rural decline will continue to heavily decimate the Hoosier hinterlands, placing them in America’s new ghettos: rural, lacking in services, and priced out of useful healthcare, transportation, and high-paying jobs.

Mitch Daniels in his return third term in 2020 will be able to stem the tide for a while, but by 2030 we’ll view rural residents as burdensome and unable to deliver value for the State.

Higher education will continue to be a sore point for Indiana as Hoosiers will still be priced out of it. I don’t expect changes in the pricing of higher education for another generation.

Places currently in economic decline will be largely abandoned. Muncie, Tipton, Seymour, and the like will resemble present-day Gary. Anderson and Kokomo may be able to stem this tide by throwing transit subsidies into Indianapolis’ orbit. Westfield’s gain in residents, for instance, will be Kokomo’s gain in industry.

Very rural counties today, like Cass, Washington, Greene, etc. will decline even further into a barely-self-sustaining entity that is mired in drug abuse, prostitution, underemployment, and anger.

The overarching conclusion: the more things change, the more they stay the same.

To my urbanist and Sanders supporting friends, a word.

To my urbanist friends supporting Bernie and other government-funded solutions to problems of everyday Americans: I think I can open your eyes to something.

In my earlier post about Trump and Sanders supporters I said that in places like the Ohio Valley, government solutions seldom work because they almost never occur at a useful scale. Not since the Post Office and electricity. And thus the rise of Trump: “Why would I pay for something for someone else when we know we get nothing?”

Let’s shrink this down to a smaller area: Marion County.

Here are some perfectly valid claims, ones that many of you are highly supportive of:

  1. “Can I get some sidewalks near my home? It’s dangerous on the street without them, and at night people can’t go out without risking death.”
  2. “Can we build some trails so my spouse and I can have a place to exercise and lose weight?”
  3. “It’s getting tough to for us and the city to afford to operate a private car, and the city’s unable to maintain the roads well, how about more mass transit?”
  4. “Can we get our now 15-year old road re-surfaced? It floods a lot, too.”
  5. “Can we get more streetlights? Maybe it can help reduce crime?”

To many of my friends, these are all fantastic things that must and should be done. We’ll vote in referendums, we’ll lobby for increased funding, we’ll talk to our political leaders.

I know I have. I’ve been saying every one of those things for about 9 years now. Why such a specific number? Because that’s when I bought my house. In Marion County. 7 miles from Downtown. Just a few miles from Fountain Square and Irvington.

What do I have?

  1. No sidewalks anywhere outside my neighborhood.
  2. No trails nearby except the Pennsy Trail, which is unsafe by any means to get to on a bike from me, and appears to be on a completion time of 67 years. For most of the last 9 years it was a 1.25 mile stretch.
  3. My bus route gets “streamlined” to a 15-minute walk away from my house (it used to be right out the door), and I get to walk along a crap road that’s barely lit with a muddy, hole-ridden, chemical-stained shoulder.
  4. My arterial street hasn’t seen much beyond some quick hot-mix patches over the last 12 or 13 years. Stretches so bad people drive in the turn lanes to avoid the driving lane.
  5. Streetlights burn out and don’t get replaced, or are spaced so far apart I’m better off using my phone’s flashlight function.

What do I get told?

  1. We have a master plan for sidewalks, and we’re building it out 3 years at a time.
  2. We’re working on our master plan for trail connectivity over the next 20 years.
  3. We’re working on a new bus master transit plan with higher frequency and faster service. It’ll be great in 2021!
  4. We’re waiting for funding. It’s on the list.
  5. We’re going to replace every street light with new LED ones and put more in where they’re needed most.

Great!

Except not a single one of those things impacts me at all. And I do mean at all.

  1. The sidewalk plan has me in a tier 2 area. So expect something in about 15 years, if ever.
  2. The master plan for trails doesn’t come within 7 miles of me.
  3. The new transit plan leaves my route largely unchanged. Same 15-minute walk, same 60-minute frequency. Just some longer hours at times of night I don’t go anywhere anyway. In fact, the part of my route I care most about (Prospect, along through Fountain Square) will go away and instead carry me along English Ave. I think there’s a Dairy Queen along in there somewhere.
  4. Southeastern Ave. hasn’t been repaved in at least 13 years. In that same time Fall Creek Parkway is paved like the Speedway and Kessler, another Tier-2 road, has been resurfaced 4 times.
  5. We’ll see if Joe Hogsett lives up to his promise for more streetlights, but I’m not holding my breath.

And why am I told all those? This is where my urbanist friends have reasonable suggestions:

  1. We have to build where there’s the most demand!
  2. The trails will be great in high-density neighborhoods!
  3. Transit works best when it’s simple routes through dense places!
  4. We should have fewer roads so we can afford to maintain them!

You can see where this is going, right? You’ve chosen a set of “winners” and a lot of “losers”.

Can you imagine why a person loses faith very, very, quickly in these sorts of things? Government promises something, and doesn’t deliver. Or what it does deliver is lousy. And the reasons why are simply, “There’s just more over here.” More voters, more money, more everything. And here I sit, in a moderately dense area with nothing special. We’re not 38th street and we’re not Wanamaker.

And you want me to say, “Yes, let’s pay just a little more in taxes to cover these things!” Ok…but, do I like, get to use any of them? I’d rather not have to drive 20 minutes to Broad Ripple to use the Monon with my dog. I don’t think that’s asking too much.

This is how rural voters feel about everything. They don’t even get water. After a while, those of us who live in cities start to look really stupid for promising things to people that never come. These folks aren’t stupid. They’re literally working in their best interests because they’ve seen this movie before.

And here I am, 7 miles from the epicenter of our city, in a house I bought in Marion County to fight against suburban flight and I’m rewarded with, well, not much. Fire protection is pretty good.

So when someone comes along like Trump and says, “You know what, let’s just stop all this nonsense”, there’s some there there for a lot of people. This is why I have such a libertarian streak in me, too. It’s why I trudge along in ways no one else would. Not many of my urbanist cyclist friends would bike where I do and in the conditions I do. Not many people would put up with the walking I do. Because all I can do is what I do for everything: will it into existence. My desire to not spend money on a car is far above my desire to stay a little dryer when it rains. I’ll just wear a rain coat.

I still support all those things for Indianapolis. I just wish that after all my jumping up and down someone would at least throw me a bone. I can hear someone now saying, “Well this is good for all of Indianapolis.” Yeah, that’s nice, but it’s also sorta like saying, “What’s good for New York is good for Indianapolis.” No, it almost certainly is not. That’s patronizing and I wish you’d stop.

iOS: Getting to Know Objective-C

Moving into Chapter 2, “Objective-C”. At this point, I’m prepared to be lost, but I try to keep up. It goes into discussion of Objects, Instances, Methods, etc. The book is clearly trying to keep things short, but I need visual representation of these things. A table or graph showing what these things are, how often they’re used, what they do, etc. in a sentence or less would be helpful. Someone should get on that.

I try to create visual representations in my head:

Objects = a box with something in it that does something with focus, like a toaster or hair dryer.
Class = the box’s distribution center.
Instances = The mayfly of objects, living only long enough to reproduce or eat and then it dies.

But, things start to get a little fuzzy as we move into phrases like NSMutableArray. What does “NS” stand for? Why is it “mutable”? Is it because it makes a lot of noise? Is that short for “mutate-able”, meaning it can change and evolve?

For example, here’s some sample code it gives us in the book:

[arrayInstance replaceObjectsInRange:aRange
withObjectsFromArray:anotherArray
range:anotherRange];

I know a few things about this, namely that the colons always line up for the sake of readability and that we’re dealing with an array. This one’s not so difficult, but sometimes when texts give sample code I have a hard time discerning what’s junk filler text and what’s not. I assume “arrayInstance” and “replaceObjectsinRange” are reserved commands that actually do something. I assume “aRange” and “anotherArray” are the filler examples, but if not for those in context, I’d be inclined to think that “anotherRange” was a reserved phrase. It might be more helpful if it were like this instead:

[arrayInstance replaceObjectsInRange:LoremRange
withObjectsFromArray:LipsumArray
range:anotherLoremRange];

Italicizing and including Lipsum text makes sense to me since it feels more conventional. However, does “withOjectsFromArray” do something, or is it more like “withObjectsFromLipsumArray”? I don’t know.

The book charges on, somewhat without me. I can keep re-reading until I’m blue in the face, but it’s not going to help. I need tangible, visual things to straighten me out. It goes on to telling us to creating a new command line utility, which I correctly assumed meant it only worked in Terminal.

As it walks us through creating classes, discerning .h from .m files, etc., I inadvertently make a mistake while we build this “Possessions” app. You see, they’re only four words in the English language that I use with some regularity that I can’t spell. And I’m a good speller, too. Those words in no particular order are:

  1. Refridgerator
  2. Doughnut (or is it “Donut”? No one knows.)
  3. Albaquerque (I at least remember that it ends with two “que”s)
  4. Posessions

Guess how many times I misspelled “Possessions” in XCode with just one of the first “s’s”? A lot. The thing never worked from the get-go because I assume I was typing while looking at the book just enough that I did put the other “s” in there some of the time. By the time I had written dozens of lines of code, it was a mess.

I thought, “No big deal. This is what Find and Replace is for.” No. Not really. It worked, but couldn’t discern capitalization well and I wasn’t in the mood to sit and run through each line of code. In my haste, something went screwy and when I tried to give up and copy/paste from the source files that came with the book, it got even worse. I couldn’t even cheat effectively. XCode lit up like an angry red Christmas tree with error after error.

Eventually, after copying and pasting every last file, I isolated the problem to one area: everywhere.

Then the app started working and I was left frustrated and feeling lousy without any real posessions.

iOS: Getting Started

I’ve opened the book from the guys at Big Nerd Ranch. I’m reading it on my iPad using the Kindle App and I’ve downloaded their source files and sample apps to be used throughout the book. I’m a registered developer with Apple, I have been for a while, but only for a free account. I haven’t paid the $99 to access beta software or to publish an app. Maybe someday.

I’m excited about getting into it, but as I read the introduction of the book, they tell me that if I’m not familiar with C or Objective-C that I should purchase and read Programming in Objective-C by Kochan. So, I went to Amazon and ordered the book for about $7 used. Turns out, it was an older edition and the Big Nerd Ranch book didn’t specify that initially. Amazon’s top result was what I bought. The new one is about $35. But frankly, both books are longer than the bible and I don’t suspect I’ll get much use out of it. So, I’ve decided to trust my brain to figure things out as I go through iPhone Programming. I at least have the older edition of Kochan’s for reference.

I start in on a Quiz application and things go well. Many of the principles, such as hooking up objects, is somewhat familiar to me. At the same time I’m reading through this book, I’m also subscribing to a Stanford class on iOS development via iTunes U. It’s moving fast and clearly designed for folks who know how to program. I’m getting the impression from the Stanford course and this book that learning how to develop iOS Apps was probably not intended to be the first language someone picks up. Knowing Apple, that’s probably a feature and not a bug.

The quiz application goes smoothly enough. It takes me through arrays, which I still only slightly understand. I know what they are to a degree. I’m a visual person and programming isn’t really a visual area of study. I have to imagine arrays are like eggs in an egg carton, each with a number value painted on them. I can access the whole carton or individual eggs in the carton by counting from “0” at the top left corner. See how my mind works?

I followed the book, copied the code by re-typing it by hand and built the app. Naturally, I encountered a bunch of syntax errors — things like missing colons, semicolons and parentheses. But, it eventually worked. Since the first chapter covered Interface Builder, I suspect it was easier for me because it felt like working in Adobe Fireworks, my preferred application for designing websites.